Deans of health: We need to train the right number of doctors – also for the healthcare system of the future
Of course we need to train the right number of doctors. But we must also make sure that, in trying to solve one problem, we do not end up creating another, write Denmark’s four deans of health.
By: Deans Anne-Mette Hvas (AU), Karina Dahl Steffensen (AAU), Bente Merete Stallknecht (KU), Jakob Grauslund (SDU)
There is hardly anyone who wants to educate people for unemployment. Nor do the health sciences faculties.
That is why we share the ambition that the number of medical students should correspond to the needs of society. The doctors we train must be able to continue through the education system, become specialist doctors and contribute to the healthcare system. On this, we agree with the Danish Medical Association.
But for precisely that reason, we should also be cautious about drawing conclusions too quickly about how far admissions may need to be reduced.
Medical education is one of the most long-term investments we make in the healthcare system. The decisions we make today will only begin to have real consequences in at least 12 years’ time and beyond. The question therefore requires more than a snapshot of the situation here and now.
Not a simple calculation
We are in the midst of a number of changes that point in different directions.
On the one hand, there must be a balance between the number of trained doctors and the number of postgraduate medical training posts. We must avoid bottlenecks in which newly qualified doctors face uncertainty about their future career path.
On the other hand, there are still areas of the healthcare system where the shortage of doctors is clearly felt. We have not yet reached a situation in which all parts of the country and all specialties are sufficiently covered. At the same time, politically adopted reforms and plans involve a significant expansion of healthcare outside hospitals. Local healthcare services must be strengthened. More GPs must be trained and established in practice. Psychiatry must be given a boost. All of this depends on medical expertise.
The question, therefore, is not simply how many doctors we need today. The question is what kinds of doctors society will need in the future.
It is not a simple calculation.
The number of older citizens is growing. More people will live longer with chronic diseases. More patients will have complex courses of illness and need treatment across specialties. This changes the demands placed on the healthcare system and on medical workforce capacity.
At the same time, the labour market is changing. More younger doctors are seeking flexibility or part-time employment during certain periods of their careers. This means that the future workforce cannot necessarily be assessed solely on the basis of the number of authorisations to practise medicine.
Long-term assessments rather than short-term fluctuations
We must also remember that doctors do not only treat patients.
They carry out research, teach, develop new forms of treatment, and contribute to the life science strategy and the innovation agenda that both the healthcare system and society increasingly demand. If we want a healthcare system that can both deliver treatment today and develop solutions for tomorrow, it requires time and capacity for more than day-to-day operations.
We should therefore be cautious about large and rapid fluctuations.
History shows that the healthcare system struggles to live with a stop-go approach to educational capacity. It was precisely concern about a shortage of doctors that led to an increase in admissions to medical degree programmes in 2019. If we now reduce numbers too sharply, we risk facing the opposite challenge in a few years’ time.
At the same time, universities are not an accordion that can simply be compressed and expanded again at will. Academic environments, research groups and teaching capacity take many years to build up. Once they have been dismantled, they cannot necessarily be re-established when demand grows again.
There is therefore a need for thorough analyses of future demand for doctors, and for decisions based on long-term assessments rather than short-term fluctuations.
Of course we need to train the right number of doctors. But we must also make sure that, in trying to solve one problem, we do not end up creating another.
It is therefore crucial that political responsibility is considered as a whole. The new Minister for Health and Minister for Ecclesiastical Affairs and the Minister for Science, Higher Education and Digital Affairs should talk to each other – and preferably to us as well – when it comes to training the doctors of the future.
Because when it comes to doctors, it takes many years to correct a wrong decision – and even longer to train the doctors we will end up lacking.
The opinion piece was published in Sundhedsmonitor 8 Jun 2026
Contact
Dean Anne-Mette Hvas
Aarhus Universitet, Faculty of Health Sciences
Telephone: +45 87 15 20 07
Mail: [email protected]